Monday we wrote that the market typically moves based on variances from expectations. Yesterday’s election is an obvious example as the market had predicted, with high odds, a Clinton win thus, the strong rally over the last couple of days. Since the Trump victory was unexpected by markets around the world, the variance from expectations will cause a market sell off on the opening today. However, this should be considered an opportunity rather than a reason to panic or otherwise make emotional decisions. We believe once nerves calm, the Trump economic agenda of lower taxes and reduced regulation will be beneficial to U.S. Economic growth going forward.
We previously said a Trump win would cause a near term market reaction. The DJIA futures were down over 800 points at the lows overnight. Already as this post is being written, the futures have improved significantly and we would simply be back to about Friday’s closing level. We have identified several positions we would buy if our entry points are reached. We believe the market will be volatile short term but will resume the upward trend soon. Under a Trump administration, we expect GDP growth to nearly double over time which will benefit corporate earnings and therefore stock prices.
Once again, as we wrote Monday of this week, “Short term; might have to hold on to your hat as the winds of uncertainty cause volatility near term. We continue to strongly believe that patience here will be rewarded.”