Oil and Interest Rates: We are seeing renewed volatility due to weakness in oil and the uncertainty about whether the Federal Open Market Committee will raise rates after their two day meeting ending next Wednesday the 16th. We expected increased volatility could enter the market just prior to and after the Fed decision.
The Fed has been gauging its decision on the health of the economy. It is better to have rising interest rates due to expected acceleration of economic output than to anticipate a weaker economy on the horizon.
Many economic indicators are pointing to better times ahead domestically even though the world economy continues to struggle. Though we would not be surprised if the market is weak short term, since 1950, the market has been nearly 10% higher one year after the beginning of an interest rate tightening cycle.
After strong gains over the past two years, 2015 has been a year of volatile but, net sideways consolidation. We remain bullish intermediate and longer term. The overall underlying market fundamentals are intact and we believe patience in the near term will be rewarded.